Tajikistan, the model dictatorship

 Tajikistan is not a country often discussed by international media. It is a poor post-soviet state without much to make it stick out. It does not have the economic miracles and close relations with the west of the Baltics, nor the natural gas wealth of western Central Asia, nor has it been assaulted by Russia like Georgia and Ukraine. This lack of unique traits means Tajikistan is almost anonymous when seen with an international lens, but it also means Tajikistan can be used as an excellent case study. Tajikistan is a very normal dictatorship, with all the abuses and refusal of freedoms as that entails.

Map of Tajikistan in Asia by Mapsland

The Republic of Tajikistan has been ruled by president Emomali Rahmon since 1992, making him the longest reigning leader of any post-soviet state. His reign began with him as a “nondescript” compromise candidate selected to halt the escalating civil war, but he has slowly become the singular personalistic “strongman” who completely dominates every aspect of modern Tajik politics.[1] Under Rahmon’s rule Tajikistan’s resources are plundered by the ruling family, ethnic minorities are mistreated, human rights are abused, and power is increasingly concentrated at his hands. Tajikistan, while never having been considered to be a democracy, is turning more authoritarian.[2]

President Rahmon’s political centralization, as with much of contemporary Tajik politics, requires the context of the Tajik civil war to fully understand. The civil war was a battle between Rahmon’s communists turned moderate conservative national government on one hand and an opposition of Islamists, regionalists, and liberal democrats on the other.[3] After five years the war ended in a political compromise, where the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) joined politics with legal political parties and their armed wings were integrated into the national military or disbanded.[4]

An infographic putting Rahmon's shockingly long term in office into perspective. From RFE/RL

Tajik elections, at least if you go by the official state narrative, seem to offer diverse options for the Tajik voter and have a great degree of political participation. Indeed, the latest parliamentary election of Tajikistan saw seven political parties participating, albeit with a strong lead from the ruling People’s Democratic Party led by president Rahmon. Every citizen over the age of 18 is automatically registered to vote and all able voters are eligible to run for office, with the exception of convicted criminals and members of the military.[5]

The turnout of the last parliamentary election was reported to be a strong 86%, implying that Tajikistan has a more politically engaged populace than Russia, the US, the UK, and all but two EU countries. Of course, Tajikistan isn’t called a dictatorship for no reason, and the apparent democratic mandate of Emomali Rahmon does not hold up under scrutiny. The now banned opposition news outlet Akhbor reported that the 2020 election had a turnout of 1.4 million cast votes, which does not secure the 30% turnout required by law to declare an election valid.[6]

Of the seven participating parties in the 2020 parliamentary election, only one can be considered to be a true party in opposition, that being the Social Democratic Party.[7] The party is backed by the National Alliance of Tajikistan, the spiritual successor of the UTO.[8] Two larger former UTO parties used to be real opposition forces, the Democratic Party, and the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan. The Democratic Party’s leader was abducted from Russia in 2005 and arrested in Tajikistan, and his party was replaced by a regime-friendly splinter group of the same name.[9] The Islamic Renaissance Party, which had been the largest opposition party since the civil war and repeatedly won seats in parliament was banned in 2015 and declared a terrorist organization.[10] The Social Democratic Party won only 0.3% of the vote in the parliamentary election of 2020, and boycotted the presidential election of the same year, showing how far removed the opposition has been from power.[11]

The opposition is not just unable to win any form of influence, they are actively prosecuted. Protesters and human rights activists are often jailed, and if they are in exile their families are often prosecuted for their actions.[12] The Tajik government also carries out operations to abduct, torture, and sometimes assassinate members of the opposition in exile.[13]

President Emomali Rahmon carrying out his civic duty. Image from the Tajik government.

Years after the banning of the Islamic Renaissance Party their former members are still being arrested on baseless terrorism charges.[14] This is both a part of Tajikistan’s suppression of the opposition and the Tajik government’s focus on reducing the influence of Islam in Tajik society. The government has banned hijab wearing, long beards, the Islamic call to prayer, and a long list of Islamic names (despite Rahmon’s own first name, Emomali, having Arabic and Islamic roots).[15] All this is in a country that is more than 90% Muslim. Both in Tajikistan and in Central Asia as a whole, governments worry about Islamism, which mobilizes large numbers of people outside of their state control.

Apart from power for the sake of power, Emomali Rahmon’s regime is a great economic benefit for him and his family. Rahmon’s siblings, children, and in-laws are granted private ownership over land, industries, and much of the country’s private enterprise in general.[16] This theft takes unknowable amounts of wealth away from the impoverished population of Tajikistan. The family’s control of Tajikistan is not likely to end soon, as the aging Emomali Rahmon is seemingly preparing his 36-year-old son Rustam Emomali for power.[17]

This is the first piece on this blog covering Tajikistan, but hopefully and probably not the last. Further posts about the Tajik military, the repression of the Pamiri ethnic minority and the border clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are planned, so stay tuned!


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