Politics, security and defense analysis

  On February 22 nd the prime minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, announced that Armenia would freeze its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Russian-led military alliance. [1] The future of Armenian membership in the alliance is uncertain. The decision to freeze Armenian membership comes in the wake of increased Azerbaijani pressure, improved Armenia-NATO relations, and a significant deterioration of Armenian-Russian relations. The Armenian threat of Azeri aggression has not ended with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict having ended in an Azerbaijani victory. Azerbaijan has not given up on the Zangezur corridor concept, which would link the Azeri Nakchivan exclave to the rest of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani prime minister Heydar Aliyev also often speaks of Armenian lands as “west Azerbaijan”, and that he hopes for a settlement where “west Azerbaijanis” can move home (which would then be into Armenia). [2] Pashinyan is keenly aware of the implicit threat in ...

 Tajikistan is not a country often discussed by international media. It is a poor post-soviet state without much to make it stick out. It does not have the economic miracles and close relations with the west of the Baltics, nor the natural gas wealth of western Central Asia, nor has it been assaulted by Russia like Georgia and Ukraine. This lack of unique traits means Tajikistan is almost anonymous when seen with an international lens, but it also means Tajikistan can be used as an excellent case study. Tajikistan is a very normal dictatorship, with all the abuses and refusal of freedoms as that entails. Map of Tajikistan in Asia by Mapsland The Republic of Tajikistan has been ruled by president Emomali Rahmon since 1992, making him the longest reigning leader of any post-soviet state. His reign began with him as a “nondescript” compromise candidate selected to halt the escalating civil war, but he has slowly become the singular personalistic “strongman” who completely dominates ...

In the background of the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas there have been increasingly escalating tensions between the United States on one hand and a series of “Iranian proxies” on the other, chiefly the Ansar Allah party in Yemen (commonly known by the name of the group from which many of their members originate, the Houthi tribe). Without any context, it may seem confusing why Iranian backed groups strike Israel from Lebanon or American troops in Jordan, and it may seem illogical that striking back at Iran means bombing in Syria and Iraq. To understand why so many groups in so many countries can be described as “Iran-backed”, a pattern in Iranian foreign policy must be understood, one that brings both militant groups and entire regimes into an Iranian sphere of influence. As both the United States and Iran’s supporters are continuing to bomb each other, it is very important to understand this pattern, both for policymakers and for the populations in the western world who keep ...

  A study of the failures of Russian foreign policy in Georgia The history of Georgia since independence can serve as a demonstration of every Russian method of exercising power in the Near Abroad. [1] Georgia has been a victim of Russian-backed separatism, misinformation campaigns, invasion, and partial occupation. Despite this, Georgia proper has remained outside of the Russian sphere. This serves as the first puzzle of modern Georgia: why have all Russian methods of influence exertion failed, while countries have stayed in the Russian sphere with far less meddling from Russia? It is easy to divide Georgia since independence into two periods, one before the Rose Revolution in late 2003 and one after. The Russian view of the Rose Revolution is as a pro-western foreign-planned coup. [2] This misses a very important point, which is that Georgia was not particularly pro-Russian on the eve of the revolution in 2003, and therefore Russian foreign policy in Georgia must have failed ...